As the Tennessee Vols embark on their fifth SEC Championship game appearance in the past 11 years, pretty much nobody in the country is giving us a chance to win.
It’s understandable. After all, will the Vols be the world-beaters that they were against Georgia and Arkansas or the world-class busts that they were against Alabama. Will they be the Ventricular Vols that they were against South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Kentucky or will they be Terrible Tennessee like they were in Gainesville?
Meanwhile, LSU has infinitely more talent, a better resume, slim national championship hopes and an offense with a pulse (therefore being an offense that can give the Vols fits).
Not only that, but the Bayou Bengals likely will be playing Ryan Perrilloux instead of the banged-up Matt Flynn, and the last time UT played LSU in a conference championship, Mobile Matt Mauck beat the Vols with his legs (and UT’s turnovers).
But these Vols just seem to play their best when everybody doubts them. They come up big in clutch situations, and they seem to be relatively comfortable as an underdog on a national stage. Capstone said earlier this week, they reminded him of the 1999 Alabama team, and that’s a pretty fair summation, I think.
However, I’m pretty amazed that UT is where it is with the defense it has. In my humble opinion, this is the worst defense that has ever made it to Atlanta. But they are resilient, and they’re not bad because they’re bad. They’re bad because they’re inexperienced and young, young, young. There’s nothing that should keep this team (with Berry/Vinson/Willingham/Morley/Johnson/Gaines/Faison returning next year) from being amazing in the future. I wouldn’t trade our future secondary for anybody’s in the league.
I’m going to pick UT because I’m senile. I have to because A.) I’m going to the game, B.) I am the world’s largest homer, C.) They are gargantuan underdogs and D.) The emotional see-saw is heavily in our favor.
LSU is just the type of team who can completely, overwhelmingly and whole-heartedly outclass you with its immense talent. It can pound you into submission and leave scorch-marks on you with its athletes. But both of those things together has happened exactly once this year (the massacre of an overrated Virginia Tech team).
When is the last time a team survived an emotional gauntlet like the ones the Tigers face this week?
- Michigan has asked for and was granted permission to speak with LSU head coach Les Miles. This means that the entire team has to wonder if the man they have to look in the face all week is going to stab them in the back after the game. I’m not saying they are playing this game for Les Miles in the first place, but it’s not hard to lose a trust factor when this happens, much less the focus needed to win a conference championship game against a team that has proven it is resilient and focused.
- Nebraska has Bo Pelini among its two finalists (along with Buffalo coach Turner Gill) to succeed Bill Callahan. Now, you’re taking away the coordinator of the scariest part of the team. All of the above with Miles applies with Pelini, except he also has to overcome the fact that his unit has allowed more than 550 rushing yards in the past two games. How is he going to do that with one eye on Lincoln? Tennessee’s offense isn’t exactly a big orange slushie.
- Glenn Dorsey is not 100 percent, hasn’t been 100 percent and won’t be 100 percent. Do I think that LSU’s defensive line can still wreak havoc on the Vols and Erik Ainge? Sure I do. But statistically, UT’s offensive line is the best in the country. I have plenty of confidence in that unit.
- LSU QB Matt Flynn probably isn’t going to play. This can be considered a bad thing or a good thing. I’m going with a good thing. Ryan Perrilloux basically hasn’t played in six games, and the kid is so immensely talented, if he had any trust from the staff he would be out there more. As somebody said this week, when Perrilloux is on the field, somebody’s band is going to be playing. If he starts struggling, Perrilloux could just pull out a 9-milli and start poppin’ caps, too. I hope this doesn’t happen, and I don’t think it will. But with Perrilloux playing, it doesn’t necessarily make LSU one-dimensional, but it does alleviate some of the concerns with Flynn throwing downfield to the big receivers against a less-than-suspect UT secondary. I think then John Chavis can gear more on the run, and it becomes a more manageable game.
- We’re the underdog. Come on. What more do you need? After the Alabama game, we’ve been the underdog three times, and we’ve gone 3-0. This team has done everything it has needed to down the stretch. All the national talk about Phillip Fulmer being the luckiest coach in America definitely has some substance, but in order to get breaks, you have to make breaks. And for every gimme break UT has gotten (roughing-the-punter penalty on Vandy/Ryan Succop’s missed field goal) it has made several more (blocking Lones Seiber’s kick in double-overtime/Jacques McClendon recovering Arian Foster’s fumble in the SC game/Every big Daniel Lincoln kick).
Still, even with these things, I believe Tennessee winning depends on five keys:
1. David Cutcliffe must, must, MUST get into a groove calling plays. The Vols must control the game to win. He admitted he tightened up against Vanderbilt, and since the Bama game, UT has converted less than 20 percent of its second-half third-down attempts. That’s a scary number against a scary defense.
2. Erik Ainge must, must, MUST be on the absolute top of his game. The last time Ainge played against LSU, he curled up in a fetal position in ‘05, throwing the underhand Where-Did-That-Come-From pass that will forever be a black eye on his career. This game can define Ainge’s career or it can personify the career he’s had so far.
3. UT has to get at least two LSU turnovers. This team has been increasingly opportunistic in the second half of the season. Regardless of what any narrow-minded UT fan wants to tell you, there have been two games all season when our defense has stopped ANYBODY: Georgia and Arkansas. Tossing out Louisiana-Lafayette and Southern Miss, the other five games UT won were characterized by making crucial big plays on defense to stop the gaping wound that has been the defense this year. I say AT LEAST two turnovers. AT LEAST.
4. Fulmer has to out-coach Miles. This shouldn’t be a revelation to anybody. It also wouldn’t be difficult for anybody who has had luck outcoaching people in their career, but as excellent a recruiter, as good a CEO and as fantastic a motivator as Fulmer is, Xs and Os are not his strong suit. An argument could be made (though not by me) that the two worst schematic coaches in the SEC (now that Orgeron’s gone) are coaching against one another in this game. Personally, I think Fulmer has done his best coaching job this season, but you guys already know that.
5. We have to smack LSU in the mouth early and keep pressuring the quarterback. This, in my opinion, is the second-most important thing (behind reason No. 1). We jumped on Kentucky early and we needed every ounce of that cushion. We also backed down on defense during the final 17 minutes of the game. Everybody thinks that quick-strike touchdowns are bad, but the Vols ARE certainly going to give up touchdowns to the Tigers, and I’m not so certain a couple of three- and four-play drives would be such a horrible thing (I know I’m smoking crack). But the defense played 110 snaps against Kentucky, the Wildcats had three touchdown drives of 10 or more plays and by the time crunch time came around, the defense was worn down. This goes back to Cutcliffe getting in a groove and simply controlling this game.
I know it seems like I’m asking for a lot, and it seems too much to me, too. But for some reason (it HAS to be because I’m a homer) I think UT prevails and becomes the second SEC team to have won more than two SECCGs.
Ghost’s prediction: Vols 27-24
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well i will be that rare bama fan that will be pulling for your boys. i am unique among my brethren (in more ways than one) in that i have no hatred like the hatred i have for lsu. so i’d appreciate it if your boys could help me out.
i ain’t singin’ rocky top though.
Come on, it’s a beautiful song.
This is my breakdown of the game. I just see everything going our way, and it’s going to have to for us to win. I in no way think we should win this game. Just that we will. I hope that makes sense.
I’d say most of that isn’t a prediction of how it will happen but what must happen so it’s tough to argue. You did leave one factor out, though. LSU isn’t the only team with a coordinator possibly leaving, and the difference in Pelini’s and Cutcliffe’s situations right now would favor Pelini in my mind. It will be easy for Pelini to explain to his defense the interest he has in Nebraska. He’s sort of from the Osborne tree, it’s his first shot at a head coaching job, he has deep ties there. It will be harder for Cutcliffe to explain his interest, as he has been politicking for multiple positions. I’m not saying the players would or would not think this way, but there’s certainly the possibility that he’s giving them the impression that he thinks anywhere would be better than Knoxville.
Cutcliffe told the media today he’s been contacted by no one, FWIW.
Good analysis, I think. As I’ve commented, I’m not a believer in the “hyper-talented LSU” label - it’s a media-generated tag that bears some resemblance to reality, but doesn’t live up to it. And Perrilloux certainly hasn’t proven he’s anything but a young, foolish athlete with some potential. Regardless, I think you’ve nailed a couple of the key points in the game.
One you didn’t specifically talk about is stamina. LSU has proven it can shoot itself in the foot for three quarters (penalties, poor play calling, dropped passes) against pretty good football teams (Auburn and Florida, for instance) and still play bruising football in the fourth quarter and come away with the win. Tennessee may have to do the same - play hard and at a high level for all four quarters. You can’t just punch LSU in the face in the first quarter, you’ll have to nearly put the game away for it to matter. Jumping out in front by two touchdowns only ensures a tight game.
One caveat to that is that LSU is the most injured they’ve been all year, and in critical areas. They’re so injured that we’re going to give a lot of playing time to a defensive end who was academically ineligible for the entire season until now. So, unlike previous games, LSU may no longer have the health and stamina for 4th quarter heroics. We’ll see.
When I first started reading this, I thought Ghost said that LSU’s offense with a pulse was one “an offense that can give the Vols t*ts.” That’s what happens when you read white text on a black background.
Anyway, I would echo what Crunch said about the injuries. That’s been weighing on my mind since watching Ark/LSU last weekend and taking stock of who’s not going to be available (yes, I even watched the game in MAINE, y’all).
I agree that we play our best when we’re completely dogged out and put down. I don’t mind being in the underdog role - especially in this instance - and I think it might help the collective Big Orange Psyche (no comment necessary from the Bammer Peanut Gallery).
I don’t however, agree with this, “Personally, I think Fulmer has done his best coaching job this season, but you guys already know that.” but Ghost and I can debate that some other time, as we usually do. I will however, commend Ghost on the score prediction, and up the ante a tad more, to 31-27 UT. Cuz yeah, I’m drinking that Big Orange Kool-Aid in a last ditch attempt to pull out the big one.
If LSU’s offense gives the Vols tits, we’re screwed.
If we’re running around out there like Lindsay Lohan or Terrence Cody we don’t have a chance. We’ll get all emotional. We’ll probably put the “Not Tonight” pillow on the bedroom door. We’ll refuse to cook dinner …
But I don’t know … if we have tits, we CAN’T get beat. Unless we live in the state of Alabama ….
I knew there was a reason I was excited about Terrence Cody.
To quote the incomparable Lee Courso, “Not so fast….”
First, EVERYONE is picking Tennessee as the upset which virtually assures LSU the win. The Georgia Dome has not been kind to Tennessee, but LSU has lost only one game there….to Georgia. For one, I’m glad to see Perilloux start (hopefully) and Flynn sit the bench. Flynn is only effective when he’s 100%. When he’s not, he kills us.
Pellini and Miles have something to prove today. If they come out and lose like dogs, there may be some reneging on those contracts. They’ve got to show their new masters that they are worth the ticket, therefore I’m predicting that the gloves will come off.
LSU will either win big or lose big. I’m thinking win big…. 35-17.
BTW, I’ll have more on my Jilted Girlfriend analogy later…like when Spurrier is announced as the new LSU coach.
Maven, you tease. I can’t wait to see how Spurrier fits into that.
Well, we’ll never know now since Miles pulled a fast one. Y’all can thank Herbstreit for that.
I must say that the Tigers showed their mettle against a perfect Volunteer team. The only blemish that TN put up was the interception that ended up being the difference. No penalties and an inspired defense, along with a plethora of LSU penalties still couldn’t beat the Tigers.
I think they deserve to play for the National Championship. Justice would have Georgia and LSU playing for it all because of the difficulty of the conference.